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Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Paper Accepted for DASC Conference

Yao Wang and Banavar Sridhar’s “Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels” paper has been accepted for publication in the 2010 IEEE/AIAA 29th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC). The paper focuses on forecast intensity and location accuracy at the center and sector levels in order to improve air traffic flow management and increase economic efficiency.

BACKGROUND: For many years, flight delays have presented serious problems in the National Airspace System (NAS). Statistics shows that approximately 70% of delays are attributed to weather and up to two-thirds of weather delays are potentially avoidable. Severe convective weather accounts for a significant fraction of these delays. The economic loss due to flight delays requires studies and reforms to improve the air traffic flow management (TFM) operation.

Weather forecast uncertainty directly affects the accuracy of predicted center and sector capacity. Forecast verification efforts over past decades have been focused on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observational data analyses at the national level. This study provides a fresh approach by focusing on forecast intensity and location accuracy at the center and sector levels.

COLLABORATOR: Banavar Sridhar (Code AF)

NASA PROGRAM FUNDING: ARMD Airspace Systems Program

Contact: Yao Wang

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Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Paper Accepted for DASC Conference
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